“We can only hope for the best. At the same time, it is imperative to switch out of paper-based assets into real assets such as gold, silver and well-located real estate. Along the way, various currencies will become the safe haven of the day, but none will survive what lies ahead. We are living in an Entitlement Bubble along the lines of the Dutch Tulip Bubble in the 1600s. No amount of printing or economic growth can prevent our destiny of currency destruction and entitlement collapse.”
-Robert Fitzwilson, founder of The Portola Group
Saat orang-orang membicarakan target harga emas yang mungkin dicapai, maka senantiasa membangkitkan dengan cepat imajinasi mereka yang bullish terhadapnya. Oleh karenanya saya pikir alangkah baiknya melihat sejumlah target dalam bagian ketiga tulisan tentang emas ini.
Pandangan pertama berasal dari sudut pandang fundamental oleh Scott Guggenheim dari Partners of Minerd, yang yakin bahwa emas masih undervalue di harganya saat ini. Berikut adalah beberapa paragraf dari artikelnya tentang emas yang masih terkait dengan Bretton Woods:
Investment Implications: A Green Light for Gold
“Gold was an important component of the Bretton Woods system. As a monetary anchor, it provided stability for the dollar as a global reserve currency. With the demise of gold convertibility under Bretton Woods, global price stability began to unravel. After being depegged from its official price of $35 per ounce in 1971, gold rose by more than 2,000% over the next 10 years. Investors migrate to gold when currencies no longer function as good stores of value.
The U.S. gold coverage ratio, which measures the amount of gold on deposit at the Federal Reserve against the total money supply, is currently at an all-time low of 17%. This ratio tends to move dramatically and falls during periods of disinflation or relative price stability. The historical average for the gold coverage ratio is roughly 40%, meaning that the current price of gold would have to more than double to reach the average. The gold coverage ratio has risen above 100% twice during the twentieth century. Were this to happen today, the value of an ounce of gold would exceed $12,000.
The possibility of an upward revaluation of the official price of gold should not be minimized. Although I do not anticipate or advocate a return to the gold standard, an upward revaluation of gold by one of more central banks is possible. If the Federal Reserve, for instance, announced that it stood ready to purchase gold at $10,000 per ounce, the gold-coverage ratio of the dollar would return to 75%, roughly where it stood at the beginning of Bretton Woods. This could restore confidence in the value of the dollar if its ultimate role as a reserve currency were to be challenged.
Gold’s industrial use only represents .03% of global GDP. Therefore, its upward revaluation would not cause a significant economic shock associated with rising input prices. Likewise, a higher price would probably not affect the behavior of the world’s largest holders, which are central banks and sovereign wealth funds.
Prescient investors should consider making allocations to gold and other precious metals as a hedge against the erosion of purchasing power of the dollar as well as for the potential upside from positive market price appreciation or a possible intervention at the policy level. Despite the sizable appreciation in gold prices in the last decade, gold is far from overvalued. This makes gold a low-risk investment and leads me to believe that gold will never again trade below $1,600 an ounce.”
Berikutnya prediksi dari fund manager di BlackRock, Evy Hambro, yang berinvestasi pada logam mulia serta ekuitas emas, yang mengatakan bahwa harga emas akan melonjak ke rekor tertingginya di $2400 pada musim panas tahun depan, didorong oleh QE3 AS. Pada QE1 di bulan Februari 2009 harga emas melonjak cepat dari level $900/troy ounce dan sampai saat ini koreksinya belum mencapai kembali ke level tersebut.
Dalam laporannya mengenai emas di awal bulan ini, dia mengatakan: “The gold chart has turned decidedly bullish with the 50-day moving average rising above the 200-day moving average. The last time this happened was in February 2009, which interestingly was shortly after the implementation of QE1. Then, gold was $900/oz and never looked back. Should we witness a similar rally, prices would be taken to $2,400/oz by midsummer next year.”
Akhirnya saat harga emas hampir menyentuh level $2000/troy ounce, banyak analis mengatakan bahwa logam mulia mengalami bubble, akan segera anjlok serta tidak akan pernah menyentuh kembali level rekornya tersebut. Pertanyaannya adalah, ‘Bagaimana pengertian Anda mengenai istilah bubble, dan bagaimana kita mengetahui bahwa harga emas sudah mencapai puncaknya?’
Nah, Jordan Roy Byrne atau sering dipanggil dengan the “Trendsman”, pemilik Trendsman Research dan anggota afiliasi dari Market Technicians Association (MTA), mencoba untuk menjawab hal ini dalam sebuah artikel berjudul “Intermarket Explanation for Coming Gold Bubble”:
“As we travel to Toronto for the Cambridge House conference, we thought we’d share a few points from our upcoming presentation titled “The Setup for a Gold Bubble.” There are many different ways we can analyze this. By that we mean fundamental triggers, historical ratios, valuations and potential money flows, etcetera can explain the setup for and why this bull market will become a bubble. Today, we focus on intermarket analysis, which is one of our favorite subsets of technical analysis.
For a bull market to become a bubble, it needs to attract excess money flows from other asset classes. In other words, during a bubble, money flows from various asset classes into a single one. Prior to the bubble the market must be an under-owned asset class with room to absorb the massive flows. This chart, from Pierre Lassonde’s recent presentation shows Gold’s share of global asset allocations. It currently is below 3%, which is extremely low in comparison to the 1980 figure of 14% and considering that the bull market is in its 13th year.
Moreover, and this a point others have made, Gold’s increasing share as part of the global financial pie is more a result of an increase in Gold’s value than an increase in actual ownership. Back in 1999-2001, Gold’s share was less than 0.5%. Now it is six or seven times higher. Yet, Gold’s value is roughly six times higher!
While some of the newly created money and debt will find its way into Gold, the biggest inflows into Gold will come from other markets and particularly bonds. The bond market, which dwarfs the equity and commodities markets, is by far the biggest market in the world. In recent years and in response to the global economic malaise the average investor and average institution has shifted funds out of equities and into bonds. Inflows into bond funds have been gargantuan while inflows into equity funds have been negative. Thus, in an intermarket sense, the trigger for the coming bubble in Gold will be the shift of funds out of bonds and into Gold and the like.
One way to monitor this is to graph Gold against bonds. Below we show Gold against bonds (bottom) and Silver against bonds (top). Both charts are at an interesting juncture. The next breakout in both charts would surpass the 1980 peak and result in all time highs. Gold and Silver have outperformed bonds for a number of years but the outperformance would accelerate upon breakout in these charts.”
What Do the Charts Say?
Tarquin Coe, yang menjabat sebagai Senior Technical Analyst pada Investors Intelligence bertanya sendiri apakah emas akan turun dari puncaknya dalam surat kabar bulanan gratis Investors Intelligence edisi Oktober:
“Is the rally over for gold?
On 15 October, the precious metal slumped through the $1,750 level for the first time since early September. This downside breakout followed shortly after a failed upside breakout at $1,800 (see the chart below).
Technically, gold’s daily chart certainly looks bearish and short-term toppy.
However, I am uncertain how far the downtrend will persist, simply because there is support at the 50-day moving average, followed by another at $1,670, where the 150-day moving average is currently situated. If that goes, there is another support at $1,600.
Therefore I would not short the metal from here, preferring to buy it on further setbacks after the weak hands are forced out. The entry range for gold is at $1,700-$1,670; for silver $31.00-$30.00.
Juga dengan analis terkemuka dari Citigroup, Tom Fitzpatrick, yang baru saja merilis laporan perkembangan terkini mengenai pasar emas. Berikut adalah yang dikatakannya dalam laporan tersebut, dan – seperti biasa – disertai grafik yang sangat bagus:
“Gold saw three weeks of indecision just below the important double bottom neckline at $1,790. These indecision weeks were followed by a down week last week suggesting short term losses now. Weekly momentum is also stretched and crossing back down.
A correction down to $1,661-$1,669 could be the danger in the near term before renewed gains later. This is where the 55 week moving average and 50% retracement of the last rally converge. Short term support is at $1,736 and it should be noted that the 200 day moving average comes in at $1,660, i.e. it converges with the 55 week moving average so should provide good support if/when tested.”
Yang tak kalah penting adalah David Petch dari Treasure Chests yang juga melaporkan perkembangan kondisi technical pasar emas terkini, namun berdasarkan teori hitungan Elliott Wave serta Contracting Fibonacci Spiral (CFS). Berikut adalah bagian terpenting dari laporannya tersebut:
“The short-term Elliott Wave count of gold is shown below, with the thought pattern forming denoted in green. There was a parabolic arc put in place for gold between May and early September, which did not collapse…instead it corrected higher…this is an extremely bullish observation for higher gold prices going forward. Generally, parabolic arcs see complete retraces…when there is no retracement, the upward price extension is usually equivalent to the parabolic rise…this would put gold at $2500/ounce at a minimum before July 2013. As other charts have shown, expect further sideways price action over the course of the next 4-6 weeks before breaking higher. DO NOT TRY SHORTING PRECIOUS METALS OR THE STOCK MARKET. Some articles have appeared over the past few weeks attempting to short the broad stock market or precious metals…until tops have been put in based upon the Contracting Fibonacci Spiral (CFS) cycle the markets are in (Google for more information), shorting could be an expensive proposition. The environment we are in is operating under a CFS, which to my knowledge is the only working cycle to accurately describe what is happening at present…until the mentioned topping dates of the broads, HUI, XOI, commodities etc. are reached, do not attempt shorting…volatility is going to be significant.
The long-term Elliott Wave count of gold is shown below, with the thought pattern forming denoted in green. Based upon the present pattern, expect upside to last for anywhere from 6-8 months at a minimum before topping out somewhere between $2500-3000/ounce.”
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