“In case of fire, which would you rather have? A fire extinguisher or a picture of one? The same question applies to precious metals in your portfolio.”
-Nick Barisheff, Bullion Management Group
“I believe everyone should have gold and silver in his or her own private possession, where you can lay your hands on it, because they are one of the few financial assets that can be completely private and not part of the financial system.”
-Mike Maloney, author of the best-selling Guide to Investing In Gold And Silver
Investor emas sangat bersemangat akhir-akhir ini setelah logam mulia ditutup di resistance sekitar $ 1800, tetapi nampaknya mereka harus menunggu sedikit lebih lama untuk melihat emas menembus dengan lancar ke atas level tersebut. Secara pribadi saya merasa bahwa kita akan membutuhkan banyak kesabaran karena saya pikir emas belum akan lepas landas hingga setidaknya setelah Pemilu Presiden AS yang akan diselenggarakan pada 6 November.
Sebelum kita melihat beberapa grafik yang menarik, mari kita bahas sejumlah faktor fundamental yang mempengaruhi pasar emas. Yang pertama adalah sebuah peristiwa yang benar-benar tidak dilaporkan oleh media mainstream, namun akan menjadi sangat penting dalam menentukan harga emas ke depan.
Dalam tulisan yang berjudul “The End of Cheap Gold is Here” Briton Ryle, seorang investment analyst pada Angel Publishing dan sekaligus co-editor pada The Wealth Advisory, menjelaskan mengapa aturan-aturan dalam Basel III yang akan dijalankan pada tahun depan hampir pasti akan merubah sikap perbankan terhadap emas.
“My jaw hit the floor when one of my colleagues showed me the irrefutable evidence a few months ago.
Quite simply, what he showed me was the biggest, most important story for gold in the last 40 years. It’s going to push gold prices significantly higher.
The gist of this story is that everything investors think they know about the value of gold will change on January 1, 2013. Because on that day, gold will finally be rated as a cash equivalent — just like Treasury bonds are now.
January 1. That’s just three months from today.
I’ve waited for the major financial media outlets — CNBC, Bloomberg, The Financial Times, and The Wall Street Journal — to pick this story up. Because when word gets out to the masses, there will be a gold-buying frenzy…
But so far, nothing. Nada. Zip.
Either these media-types are more ignorant than I thought (which would be a significant achievement, at least for CNBC), or they’re deliberately burying this life-changing story.
At this point it barely matters. Gold’s status is going to change, whether it’s reported far and wide or not. The price of gold will go a lot higher in 2013… and beyond. I expect to see $2,400 an ounce by March.
How High Could Gold Prices Go?
Maybe you’ve heard of the global banking regulatory group that meets in the small mountain town of Basel, Switzerland, every few years…
This group of bankers is responsible for setting global banking standards. They decide things like which assets qualify as Tier 1 assets, how much loan loss reserves banks need to hold, and how much leverage banks can take on.
Officially known as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, it’s only met three times in the last 20 years. The first meeting was in 1988. The second meeting, Basel II, in 2004, was a disaster.
The Basel banking geniuses allowed mortgage-backed securities to be considered a Tier 1 asset. (A Tier 1 rating means that the asset is considered a cash equivalent.)
Of course, after the housing crash and ensuing Great Recession, we know that mortgage-backed securities are nowhere near as good as cash.
So in 2010, the committee met again to fix their past mistakes. It was at this meeting — known as Basel III — that the biggest news for gold in 40 years emerged: news that could send gold prices to $2,400 an ounce over the next few months.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision ruled that gold could be included as a Tier 1 asset.
In other words, Basel III rules make gold just as good as cash or Treasury bonds.
Why is this critical news for gold? Well, it has to do with how a bank’s assets are used to back the loans the bank makes.
Gold’s Value to Double Overnight
Before Basel III, banks had to hold around 6% of the value of outstanding loans as collateral for those loans. Most of that 6% was comprised of what’s called Tier 1 assets: cash and company stock. (Treasury bonds count as cash.)
After Basel III, banks are required to hold approximately 12% of Tier 1 capital.
But the big news is that gold will now be considered a Tier 1 asset.
Prior to Basel III, a bank could only count 50% of gold’s market value as collateral.
As of January 1, 2013, gold’s value will double as a banking asset.
Again, I don’t know why this isn’t being reported by the major financial media.
Basel III will fundamentally change the way gold is valued by the financial markets.
Personally, I view the fact that no one is talking about this story as a gift from the market gods.
The new rules for gold aren’t conjecture. This isn’t a guess as to what the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision might do. I’m not reading the tea leaves for evidence of some global conspiracy.
The European Union will adopt Basel III rules in 2013. So will Russia and Japan. China, India, and even Pakistan are on board. Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and South Africa, too.
Basel III’s new rules for gold are coming… and they’re coming in just 55 trading days.”
Juga bank sentral menjadi faktor penting yang harus diperhitungkan. Misalnya pada tahun 2002, bank sentral memberikan kontribusi 545 ton emas untuk pasokan. Sepuluh tahun kemudian, pada tahun 2011, mereka membeli 440 ton, yang merupakan swing yang signifikan hampir 1000 ton secara fundamental!
Salah satu CEO terkemuka dunia, yang berpikir bahwa demand yang akan datang dari bank-bank sentral akan menjadi salah satu katalisator utama bagi pergerakan harga emas ke depannya, adalah Sean Boyd, dari Agnico Eagle yang mengelola aset $9,3 milyar. Berikut adalah yang dikatakannya dalam sebuah wawancara dengan KWN (www.kingworldnews.com):
“The last we spoke I think gold was in the $1,500 range, and we likened that to where we were in 2008 when gold was the $700 to $800 level. I felt that gold was basing and would ultimately come off of that base and move to the $3,000 level within the next 24 months.
What we’ve seen since then is very constructive, and certainly follows that path where we’ve had continued stimulus. We are now going to go into the phase where investors realize there are fundamental problems surrounding the US debt situation. The ongoing stimulus that will be needed will drive the US dollar lower, and this will result in gold continuing higher.
What we have seen is a game-changer …
The difference in the equation now is that even though we are seeing weaker demand from India, the central banks have more than offset that weakness. The central banks are big buyers now, and they appear to be buying on dips.
The appetite for gold from central banks will continue. Their foreign exchange reserves are growing, and they are having a hard time keeping their gold reserves up as a total percentage of reserves, especially given how quickly the reserves are growing.
This is just going to result in more demand coming out of the central banks, which is going to be one of the major factors or catalysts that’s going to drive gold to the $3,000 mark. But the last thing these central banks want to do is create disruption in the gold market.
So you can see, with the announcements out of the central banks, a steady addition of gold to their holdings, and I think that’s the type of thing we will continue to see. This will underpin the gold price, and certainly result in periods where gold is doing extremely well. The bottom line is central banks will continue to diversify out of paper reserves and into gold.”
Yang tak kalah penting, janganlah lupakan India yang secara tradisi merupakan pembeli terbesar emas hingga tahun lalu. Frank Holmes, seorang CEO dan Chief Investment Officer dari U.S. Global Investors, di bawah ini menceritakan mengenai demand emas India yang semestinya akan meningkat secara stabil dalam beberapa pekan ke depan.
“Over the past several months, we’ve heard only chirping crickets from India, the country that has historically been the world’s largest consumer of gold. Demand suffered under a very weak rupee, as the price of gold in the local currency climbed to an all-time high.
The rupee’s recent strength has helped to increase Indian gold demand with flows climbing to a five-month high, according to UBS. What’s helped bring shoppers back to the market is the fact that the exchange rate is back to where the rupee was in April.
This improvement in the currency comes just in time, as the wedding season is in full bloom. Every year, about 10,000 weddings are held in India from late September through January, in between the monsoons and the summer heat. Gold has historically been closely linked with the celebration of weddings, as the bride wears the precious metal and gifts of gold coins are given to the newlyweds.
In addition, Diwali will be celebrated in November. The Festival of Lights is India’s biggest and most important holiday of the year and is celebrated by almost 1 billion Hindus around the world. Traditionally, on the first day of Diwali, it is considered auspicious to clean the home and shop for gold.”
What Do the Charts Say?
Seperti yang mungkin telah Anda ketahui saya saat ini sangat menyukai grafik dari analis terkemuka Citigroup, Tom Fitzpatrick, karena fakta bahwa dia sunggu akurat dalam memperoyeksikan pergerakan emas. Berikut adalah yang dikatakannya baru-baru ini dalam sejumlah wawancara terpisah dengan King World News, disertai sejumlah grafik yang sangat bagus.
“The real key is to eventually get that weekly close above $1,791, which will propel gold higher….
But for the moment we could see a period where we consolidate, and maybe see a little bit of a retracement.
Given where we’ve come from, gold has risen from almost the $1,500 level to the $1,800 area, could gold retrace back down to $1,675? It’s not at all impossible (see chart below). In the overall scheme of things it would just be a decent backfill.
That might turn out to be too aggressive because the pull back could well be much more shallow than that. But anybody who has participated in this gold move has seen a gain of $200 in a space of just weeks. So we may see some profit taking in gold at this point.
The problem is that gold has advanced so rapidly that we don’t have a lot of support levels to look at. But the level where gold advanced after the Fed’s decision was $1,720. Gold advanced $50 after the announcement of more QE, and that area at $1,720 may well provide support on a retracement. If we see $1,750 give way, then I think $1,720 is a likely level in terms of a squeeze lower.”
“The gold market is flirting once again with the critical $1,791 level today. Breaking through this level will be crucial in terms of establishing the momentum for the next leg higher. If gold can get a weekly close above that level, it really completes this pattern. This will then open up the target for gold at $2,060. It could come this year or perhaps in Q1 of next year.
But we believe that in Q1 of next year we could see gold as high as $2,450 to $2,500. Gold has pushed on this critical $1,791 level for two weeks in a row, and we closed both of those weeks essentially where we opened. So this is the third week in a row that gold has been assaulting that critical level.
This really does validate the importance of getting a solid weekly close above that area, in order to establish the next trending move higher….”
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