“The simple facts remain. QE/money printing is rampant and getting worse by the month. I still have a hard time believing Ben Bernanke can say he’s going to print money and buy bonds for an unlimited amount of time and in an unlimited amount without much resistance from anyone. It’s like sailing through the fog at full speed with no plan and nobody at the helm. Every-one is drunk below and having a gay old time but soon they will find their tank empty i.e. currency worthless, and in the middle of nowhere with no power to power even their radios for help. Trouble is a brewing still and I still advocate holding a hefty portion of your wealth in physical gold and silver.”
-Warren Bevan
Hari ini tersedia 4 artikel (atau beberapa di antaranya) yang SANGAT menarik mengenai hubungan antara emas di satu sisi dengan quantitative easing di sisi lain. Artikel-artikel tersbut akan menunjukkan kepada Anda dengan sangat jelas mengapa emas menjadi salah satu aset yang harus dimiliki pada portofolio setiap orang, dan mengapa harganya hampir pasti akan berlanjut naik ke atas dinding kekhawatiran yang sulit dilalui dalam beberapa tahun mendatang.
Artikel pertama dari Dr. Martin Weiss, pendiri Weiss Research di tahun 1971 dan telah 40 tahun membantu jutaan investor menengah menemukan tempat berinvestasi dan berlindung yang benar-benar aman. Selain itu, dia juga sebagai presiden Weiss Ratings dan chairman of the Sound Dollar Committee, yang awalnya didirikan oleh ayahnya tahun 1959 untuk membantu Presiden AS Dwight D. Eisenhower ketika itu untuk menyeimbangkan anggaran pemerintah.
Artikelnya baru saja dipublikasikan pada 15 Oktober 2012, dan memiliki judul yang menarik, yaitu “New Era of Monetary EXPLOSION! What will happen?”:
“A few years before my father died, he and I studied the expansion of the Federal Reserve balance sheet with growing alarm.
The Fed was pumping money into the economy by buying bonds.
Then it added those bonds to its portfolio, increasing the size of its balance sheet.
As a result, the Fed’s total financial assets were growing by about 40% every five years, and Dad was livid.
“This is crazy!” he exclaimed.
“I started tracking the Fed when I was a young man in the late 1920s. Sometimes I even went downtown to the offices of the New York Fed to pick up the numbers in person. And I’ve been faithfully plotting them on my charts ever since.
“So I can tell you flatly,” he continued, “the Fed has NEVER done anything like this before!
“Even during the Kennedy Administration in the early 1960s, when the Fed expanded its balance sheet to get us out of a recession, the biggest growth I ever saw in the Fed’s assets over a five-year period was under 8%.
“But now look! They’re growing their balance sheet by FIVE times that pace.
“If they think they can keep this going without creating massive speculative bubbles and terrifying financial busts, they’re living in a Disney fantasyland.”
Sure enough, a few years later, we witnessed the greatest stock bubble since the Roaring ’20s — and the greatest bust since the 1930s: The Nasdaq lost nearly 75% of its value. The Dow and S&P followed. And U.S. stock investors saw over $9 trillion of their wealth evaporate in less than two years.
Think that was big? Then fast-forward to the housing bust, when Americans lost more than $17 trillion in home and stock market values — also thanks, in large part, to the Fed’s unprecedented monetary largesse.
But if you think past Fed shenanigans — and the resulting disasters — are shocking, hold your breath and consider what it’s doing today:
This chart is based on the Federal Reserve’s own data, as reported in its most recent Flow of Funds (Table L.108, pdf page 83, line 1, “Total financial assets”), plus its historic yearly data on the same series going back to 1945.
It shows the five-year growth rate in the Fed’s financial assets since 1950.
And it illustrates the incredible, unmistakable, inexcusable progression of the Fed’s role in three distinct eras:
Era of monetary stability (1950 – 1963): On average, the Fed grew its financial assets by only 3.4%every five years.
Result: Inflation and interest rates were very tame. Any speculative bubbles and busts were limited to niche sectors. Recessions were relatively mild. And the U.S. dollar was king in the global economy.
Era of monetary expansion (1964 – 2007): The Fed began expanding its balance sheet at a rapid pace — by an average of 37.2% every five years, or ELEVEN times faster than in the prior era of monetary stability!
Result: Inflation surged and interest rates went through the roof. Moreover, toward the end of the period, two boom-bust cycles and the worst recession since the Great Depression nearly destroyed America’s middle class. The U.S. dollar fell precipitously and America’s global leadership became a shadow of its former self.
Era of monetary EXPLOSION (2008 – present): The monetary authority of the United States of America (the Fed) embarked on the first major episode of outright money printing since the Revolutionary War.
Specifically, it has expanded its financial assets at an average 5-year clip of 194.9%!
That is now FIFTY-SEVEN times faster than the pace of growth recorded during the era of monetary stability!
Result: Unknown and unimaginable!
But Charles Goyette explains some of the most immediate likely consequences below …
What Happens When the Fed Goes Wild
by Charles Goyette
Before, the Fed printed money in the tens of billions of dollars, at most. Now, its money printing is in the TRILLIONS of dollars.
Until now, every time the Fed cranked up its money-printing presses, it severely limited how much money it would print and even how long it would run the presses.
Now, as Dr. Weiss has shown, the U.S. Federal Reserve has launched a new era of monetary EXPLOSION!
It has effectively admitted that the trillions it’s printed so far haven’t done one darned thing to solve our unemployment crisis — or get the economy growing again.
So it’s going to do more of the same — and expect better results!
It’s going to kick the money-printing presses into overdrive INDEFINITELY!
It’s going to print UNLIMITED amounts of money for an UNLIMITED amount of time!
… Unlimited money printing can only mean one thing: Unlimited increases in the price of gold, silver and other key assets — and unlimited profit potential for investors who own them now!
Let’s say you have a gold coin worth $1,000. If Fed money printing reduces the value of the currency by half, the price of goods you purchase with it will double, including the price of gold.
The fact is, gold is already becoming the world’s reserve currency.
Former GOP presidential candidate and Forbes magazine publisher Steve Forbes said in 2011 that the U.S. will likely adopt a gold standard within five years.
Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer says the gold standard is the only answer to the question, “If not the dollar, then what?”
Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, has called for the reintroduction of gold in the world monetary system and notes that “markets are using gold as an alternative to monetary asset today.”
Meanwhile, legislators in a dozen statehouses across the country, most notably in Utah, taking note of the Constitution’s long-forgotten Article 1, Section 10 (“No state shall … make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts”), have begun to take steps to advance the remonetization of gold in their home states.
In short, QE-Infinity means “Gold-Infinity” … “Silver-Infinity” …
Sadly, not every investor will chose to join us as we harness the power of the Fed’s latest — and greatest — money-printing scheme. Many will choose to fight the Fed, instead … and pay a high price for doing so.
I sincerely hope you are not one of them.”
Jeff Clark, seorang Senior Precious Metals Analyst pada Casey Research, juga menulis artikel mengenai emas kemarin dan memprediksikan emas pada akhir tahun 2014 akan naik dengan mudah di level rata-rata $2500 per troy ounce, yang adalah 41% lebih tinggi dari levelnya saat ini. Berikut adalah sejumlah paragraph yang paling informative dalam artikelnya:
“The largest economies of the world are all grossly devaluing their currencies. This will not be consequence-free. Gold and silver will be direct beneficiaries – as will mining companies – starting with rising prices.
There are other consequences, both good and bad, of gold hitting $2,000 and not stopping there. We think investors should be prepared for the following:
- Tight supply. As the price climbs and attracts more investors, getting your hands on bullion may become increasingly difficult. Delivery delays may become commonplace. Those who haven’t purchased a sufficient amount will have to wait in line, either figuratively or literally.
- Rising premiums. A natural consequence of tight supply is higher commissions. They won’t stay at current levels indefinitely. Premiums doubled and more in early 2009, and mark-ups for silver Eagles and Maple Leafs neared a whopping 100%.
- Swelling profits for the producers. If margins on gold production average $1,000 per ounce now, what will earnings be like when they average $1,500? At $2,000? Gold can rise much faster than operating costs, so this could happen. Imagine what this could do to dividend payouts, especially those tied to the gold price and/or earnings.
- Tipping point for a mania. There will be an inflection point where the masses enter this market. The average investor won’t want to be left behind. Will that happen when gold hits $2,000? $2,500?
The message from these likely outcomes is to continue accumulating gold – or to start without delay. Waiting will have consequences of its own.”
Berikutnya adalah Richard Russell, seorang raja penulis media dan telah lama menjadi salah satu favorit saya, yang memiliki komentar yang menggugah pikiran mengenai bagaimana kemungkinan besar pemerintah AS akan menangani beban hutangnya yang semakin meningkat, dan aset apa yang menguntungkan di tengah masalah defisit AS tak kunjung berakhir.
Berikut adalah kutipan dari Dow Theory Letters yang berjudul “The Only Way Out Is to Devalue” oleh Richard Russel:
“Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” Mao Tse-Tung
The US national debt is now over $16 trillion — and growing at the rate of more than $1.2 trillion a year. This is clearly unsustainable. But how to cut the debt? One way is to cut entitlements, which are growing exponentially. Will they cut Medicare? Cut food stamps? Cut any entitlements at all? No politician would dare make extensive cuts in entitlements.
OK, then raise taxes sky high for everyone, and I mean for everyone. Are you kidding? If we raised everyone’s taxes to the hilt, that still wouldn’t solve the US’s deficit problem. Furthermore, no politician would dare vote to raise taxes sky high!
Really, then how are we going to solve the debt and deficit problems?
It is not going to be solved. The temporary “solution” will be put off for as long as our polls can put it off. But how will they put it off? It will be put off in only one way — by devaluing the currency. And surprise, that’s what they’re doing now.
Let me give you an example. I took out a $10,000 GI insurance policy in 1945. The payments were $20 a month. That $20 a month was a great hardship for me in 1945. In the time since, the Fed has driven up inflation at the rate of 2% a year. 75 years have elapsed since I took out that policy. Today, paying that $20 a month would be a piece of cake for me. I could pay it easily.
And that shows how they’re going to “handle” the debt. They’ll do it by devaluing the dollar. Twenty years from now, there’ll be so many dollars floating around that our national debt will look a lot easier to handle. By printing dollars by the billions or probably trillions, the US will render the national debt much easier to deal with.
But what about the dollar? What will happen to the dollar if the Fed continues its 2% inflation program each and every year?
Answer — The purchasing power of the dollar will slowly erode. And all other fiat currencies will decline with the dollar as they compete for exports against the dollar.
Ultimately, the whole strategy will collapse the purchasing power of the dollar. And the various fiat currencies will have lost all their purchasing power.
When will that happen?
It’s happening now — but slowly. “QE to infinity” was a big step towards it happening.
In the end, it will take more and more of any given fiat currency to buy anything — a quart of milk, a shirt, a loaf of bread, a car, a house — anything. The rising debt and the government’s efforts to “handle” the debt will destroy the entire monetary system. Only one form of wealth will remain — gold.
Gold? Why gold?
Gold does not need the backing of any sovereign power, gold has no counter-party — gold in itself represents pure, eternal wealth. The total world quantity of gold is limited, nobody can manufacture it — although for centuries alchemists have tried, nobody can increase it by the flick of a computer. In the end, gold will be the only true wealth. Fiat paper, the products of the central banks, will represent a symbol of man’s egotism, greed and thirst for power. The only existing wealth will be the currency that men (bankers) cannot control or manufacture — gold.
Question — Who are these people who you say thirst for power?
Answer — They are the secretive bankers who created the Federal Reserve. The Fed was created by bankers and for bankers.
As recently announced by Ben Bernanke, the Fed will buy $40 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities from the banks. In this way, the Fed will take these junk mortgage-backed securities from the banks and in return give the banks dollars. Thus, they will reliquify the banks with acceptable money, while taking these junk mortgage-backed securities off the hands of the banks.
Question — Where will the Fed get the money to buy all these mortgage-backed securities?
Answer — The Fed will conjure up the money out of thin air.
Question — If all that you say is true, then why not advise your subscribers to put all their assets into physical gold?
Answer — Because that would be inconvenient, perhaps inconvenient for a long time. The scenario I’m talking about could take place in a matter of years. In the meantime, you and I are forced to do all our transactions with fiat dollars (which are the only legal tender). If I tried to pay my restaurant bill with a small gold coin, I would be turned down, and the police would be called in.
Besides, if the current monetary system collapsed, the government in its desperation could pass a law making it a felony to transact any business transactions with gold. In that way, the government could force people to deal with Fed-created junk dollars. Which is why some analysts suggest holding your gold in a foreign country. In that case, our government could imitate France where it is against the law to take any gold out of the country. Yes, the government (or the Fed) will do whatever it takes to force us to use the Fed’s unbacked junk paper.”
Akhirnya sampai pada tulisan yang senantiasa memberikan pencerahan dari Egon von Greyerz, yang merupakan the Founder serta Managing Partner pada Matterhorn Asset Management AG dan Gold Switzerland, yang dibuat secara ringkas pada 9 Oktober dan diberi judul “Printing Money – Price of Gold – Preservation of Wealth”. Berikut kutipan keseluruhannya:
- Worldwide money printing continues unabated
- Just In 10 years $120 trillion have been printed making global debt $200 trillion
- World GDP has gone from $32 trillion to $70 trillion 2001-2011
- Thus $120 trillion debt is required to produce a $38 trillion annual increase in GDP
- The marginal return on printed money is negative in real terms
- Thus the world is living on an illusion of paper that people believe is money
- This illusionary paper wealth will implode in the next few years
- The initial trigger will be the collapse of the world’s reserve currency – the US dollar
- The dollar is backed by $120 trillion of US government debt and probably NO gold
- All currencies will continue their race to the bottom and lose 100% in real terms against gold
- This will create a worldwide hyperinflationary depression
- All assets financed by the credit bubble will go down in real terms
- This includes stocks, bonds, property and paper money of course
- The financial system is unlikely to survive in its present form
- The banking system including derivatives has total liabilities of around $1.2 quadrillion
- With world GDP of $70 trillion, the world is too small to save a financial system which is 17x greater
- This is why there will be unlimited money printing and hyperinflation
- The only asset that will maintain its purchasing power is gold Click here for chart
- Gold has been money for 5,000 years and will continue to be the only currency with integrity
- Western countries’ 23,000 tons of gold is probably gone. See recent article by Eric Sprott.
- The consequence is that most of the gold in the banking system is likely to be encumbered
- This means that Central Banks one day will claim it back against worthless paper gold IOUs
- Thus gold and all other assets within the banking system involve an unacceptable counterparty risk
- Gold should be held in physical form and stored outside the banking system
What Do the Charts Say?
Grafik pertama datang dari laporan yang ditulis oleh Jurrien Timmer, yang dipublikasi melalui Fidelity.compada 16 September:
Jika Anda berpikir bahwa bank-bank sentral akan tetap mencetak uang di masa yang akan datang, maka Anda dapat melihat sendiri sampai level berapa harga emas kemungkinan akan naik.
Dan untuk mereka yang menganggap harga emas mahal saat ini, silahkan lihat grafik berikut yang mengindikasikan bahwa harganya masih memiliki jarak (yang jauh) dengan harga yang disesuaikan dengan kondisi inflasi:
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