A good year or so ago, gold had accelerated into a sort of climax peak above $1,900. It has taken almost a year to correct that sharp advance. I think gold has absorbed the selling pressure very well, and has gone through a lengthy, cyclical corrective process, into the low $1,500s. There was always a risk that it could break down once more to make for a climax low, but I don’t think this is likely anymore. The odds of that happening have decreased. …while gold has run up into the $1,700s, we could any time see a setback of $50 or $60 or so. That would be normal. But from now on buying the dips is the right strategy because I think we have actually entered the next cyclical bull market within the secular bull run that we are still in. I think this has much higher highs to go.”
-Felix Zulauf, who founded Zulauf Asset Management
Hari ini mari kita lihat lebih dekat ke salah satu investasi favorit saya saat ini, yakni logam mulia dan lebih spesifik emas. Meskipun periode
bullish pada logam mulia sudah berjalan 12 tahun, banyak orang yang masih belum tahu mengapa emas (dan juga perak) lebih baik dari saham dan patut menjadi bagian dari portofolio setiap orang.
Selain itu, masih banyak informasi yang salah, manipulasi serta ketidaktahuan dalam media-media mainstream yang membuat para pelaku pasar cenderung menjauh dari investasi logam mulia. Oleh karenanya menurut saya sebuah gagasan yang luar biasa untuk mengetengahkan artikel berikut yang berjudul “The Top 3 Rules toUnderstand About Gold & Silver Price Behavior”.
Ditulis oleh JS Kim, seorang Managing Director dan sekaligus pendiri dari SmartKnowledgeU, sebuah perusahaan riset dan konsultan investasi yang sangat independen, yang merencanakan strategi investasi untuk melindungi Main Street dari penipuan Wall Street.
Saya yakin bagi sebagian orang ini akan benar-benar merupakan hal baru, meskipun mungkin ada sebagian lain memang sudah sangat mewaspadainya:
Over the past 10+ years of this gold and silver bull, I’ve seen gold and silver “newbies” repeatedly make the same mistakes. So I’ve decided to write this short article to help people more clearly understand gold and silver price behavior. There are 3 solid rules to follow and understand when buying gold and silver bullion and or mining stocks. Because of the lack of understanding of these rules, many investors unfortunately unload gold and silver assets at the exact wrong time, at the bottom of long corrections and right at the beginning of huge new legs higher. Back in mid-May, when I wrote that it was a very low-risk, high-reward point to buy gold and silver assets, virtually no one outside of the very small circle of seasoned gold and silver investors were interested. Now that gold and silver have risen considerably since that point and time, there is more interest than just a few weeks ago, but again, some newbies will make the mistake of buying into gold and silver now, and on any slight pull back, listen to the doubts disseminated by the mainstream media, and panic sell again.
I previously stated on August 16, 2012, the following: “The one thing I can guarantee, however, is that when gold and silver finally make new highs, and they will, some of the ferocious moves higher are absolutely going to stun a lot of people.” And I still stand by this statement. In retrospect, I don’t consider the recent moves in gold and silver to be part of the “ferocious moves higher”.
That hasn’t happened yet and we’re still a bit away from the manifestation of the scenario that will trigger these moves. Still, some of the moves higher in gold and silver that will happen over the next 1-2 years will be so rapid and shocking that to most people, they will seem impossible given the psychological damage done by the past 18-month gold & silver correction and consolidation period. And to those that pay too much attention to the mainstream financial press and not enough to the realities of the physical, not paper, gold and silver markets, these violent moves higher will be likewise shocking.
Because gold and silver have been so suppressed for an extended period of time the consequent defensive actions of exiting PM mining stocks and re-purchasing them at solid re-entry points has left many gold and silver investors weary and with a negative outlook ahead. Though patience is a virtue when holding and stacking gold and silver assets, this virtue is much more easily vowed than practiced, especially during volatile periods of price behavior upward and downward during an extended consolidation phase. However, those that are able to see through the volatility games of banksters will see something entirely different – a solid base for gold and silver’s next move higher to escape the banking cartel’s price suppression schemes. Thus, even though it is likely for gold and silver assets to take a breather and for a pull back in prices to happen before the upward trek continues, whether gold and silver are rising or falling, every gold and silver investor needs to understand the top 3 rules when holding gold and silver assets. So here they are:
(1) Volatility Does Not Equal Risk.
Far from it. In fact most volatility in gold and silver is deliberately manufactured by the banking cartel, and is manufactured in fake paper derivative markets in which prices are set with absolutely zero regard for the actual physical supply and physical demand determinants of these two precious metals. Furthermore, since banker cartel manipulation of paper gold and silver derivatives plays such a big role in price volatility, moves in gold and silver are often just as violent to the upside as they are to the downside after long periods of consolidation, as violent moves higher are often caused by short-covering of panicked hedge funds and banking cartel members that are forced to unwind shorts when the momentum to the upside becomes too great for them to suppress. Furthermore, after brief periods of very quick rises, another short-term correction triggered by day traders taking profits and/or desperate banking cartel members’ actions in paper markets does not mean the uptrend has reversed back downward again…which bring us to Rule #2.
(2) Lack of Patience is the Greatest Enemy to Buyers of Gold, Silver and PM Mining Shares.
With physical gold and physical silver, bankers deliberately create massive volatility in paper prices at times to discourage the uninitiated from buying physical and to try to goad those already in to mistakenly sell. With PM mining shares, the greatest mistake investors make with this asset class is to let the bankster created artificial volatility in mining shares discourage them into selling out of all of their shares right before the next great leg higher. While it is true that the vast majority of gold and silver mining shares in the junior resource sector are junk and inflated pipe dreams, even cashed-up, solid junior mining companies will be taken down in price during bankster raids on paper gold and paper silver and thus, patience with junior mining companies is essential to coming out on top.
One of the top performing gold stocks lost more than 50% of its value a few years before the onset of the Great Depression before going on a spectacular +1,258% run higher that ended in1939. Those that were impatient because they were unable to see the big picture of the importance of gold during periods of severe economic instability sold out when this stock corrected sharply, locked in losses, and received none of the spectacular gains. Many today will repeat this same exact mistake.
(3) Ignore the White Noise and Disinformation Anti-Gold/Anti-Silver Campaigns of the Commercial Banking Industry.
Clients that allocate money to physical gold and physical silver purchases or PM mining share purchases translates into lost revenues for fee-based managed money commercial banking and brokerage firms because this normally translates into money that leaves these firms and never comes back. Thus, the vast majority of commercial banking/brokerage firm employees have great incentive to prevent their clients from purchasing any gold and silver assets of any nature, including even robust PM mining stocks.
Thus, when the most robust PM mining shares are at super undervalued valuations and represent a low-risk, high-reward set-up, commercial banking/brokerage firm employees are likely to tell you there is ZERO opportunity in PM mining shares. However, when great runs higher in gold and silver assets occur, uninformed commercial banking employees are likely to inform you of this situation and goad you into purchases right before the next steep correction, as was the case when silver hit $50 an ounce last year. A sharp, rapid and significant correction in the first month of buying gold and silver is a lesson likely to keep many “newbies” from ever returning to the gold and silver markets in the future.
What Do the Charts Say?
Dalam sebuah technical view untuk pasar, seorang analis terkemuka di Citigroup, Tom Fitzpatrick, dalam ‘Gold & Silver Chartapalooza’ yang diberikan untuk KWN (www.kingworldnews.com) menjelaskan bahwa emas dan perak akan kembali menembus rekor tertingginya.
Omong-omong, bukanlah tanpa alasan ia disebut analis terkemuka karena hampir setiap hasil kerjanya dinantikan dan untuk itu saya sarankan untuk mendengar apa yang dikatakannya.
Berikut adalah yang dikatakannya dalam 3 laporan terpisah bulan ini, disertai grafik yang sangat bagus:
“We are constantly told that ‘Gold is a useless yellow metal’ with no real monetary value yet history belies this. For over a decade it goes higher and higher and we hear the crescendo of cries that it is unsustainable and a bubble. (There was no such crescendo about the equity markets in 2000 and again in 2007-Nasdaq in particular, or the Nikkei in 1990).
When the Oil price went from $10 to $147 it was explained away by peak Oil theory. The housing market was ‘not a bubble’ and we had never had a national decline in prices (Never say never). All of the above ended up being bubbles that burst as people participated in those trends with leverage and sent most of these markets up in multiples far greater than we have seen with Gold.
History also shows that markets rarely ‘implode’ when everybody is looking for it. All the way up, every new $100 bounce raises the cries of ‘bubble’ again. We believe this move is far from over and still expect Gold to be an outperforming asset for some years to come.
Gold is on the cusp of breaking out against the currencies of the USD-Index (As it did in 2006-2007) (EUR; JPY; GBP; CAD; SEK and CHF). If you include Europe’s inevitable monetization then 86.7% of this index is made up of countries who are effectively printing money, as is the US. It is no wonder that Gold should therefore be breaking out against paper currencies overall (see chart below).
“We now feel like we’ve at least got the first leg in what we think is the start of a move that’s going to take gold significantly higher. Gold has broken out of the top of this triangle (see chart below), and above the downward sloping trend line.
That should open up the way now for a test of what we believe to be the more important level at around $1,791, which was the peak earlier in the year. If gold can break through that level, and we believe gold will eventually, we will complete a double-bottom within the triangle, which will give a target in the region of $2,060 an ounce.
We’ve also had a close above the 55 week moving average. It’s the first time we’ve seen that since the move down to the lows in May. We also had two consecutive up-weeks in gold. The last time we had two consecutive up-weeks off these similar lows was back in late December, early January. This was the platform which gave us a move up to $1,791.
So the picture to us is looking increasingly positive in terms of the potential move. Also, this move in gold continues to look very similar to the formation we saw into early 2007, before we started to see gold move higher. If gold repeats that pattern, while the double-bottom targets $2,060, that 2007 pattern would suggest that we could be looking at something even higher, maybe as high as $2,450 to $2,500 as we move into the first quarter of 2013.”
Fitzpatrick juga menambahkan: “I think we had a lot of the breathing in gold, in terms of the moving back and forth, when we had a number of weeks of consolidation. This went on for many weeks. So I actually think that was the breathing mechanism.
Now it’s impressive not only that gold has pushed out here, but also that we have pushed out here with some momentum. I think we can make a move towards that $1,791 level, in the weeks and months ahead, without it being the real acceleration in gold. Our sense is the real acceleration is going to come when gold breaks through that $1,791 level.”
“You can still have corrections and track sideways occasionally, but to us the trend is solid. The pattern is quite clear, and we still believe this $1,791 area is really quite critical in terms of the next leg higher for gold, as well as the $37.48 level on silver.
When we get a weekly close through both of those critical levels, we anticipate that will give us an acceleration which will take us up toward the targets on gold to the $2,055 area (see chart below), and silver back to the old highs near $50. However, on a longer-term basis we believe we have a setup here which suggests that gold could continue to go higher for some time to come.
Fitzpatrick continues: “We’ve always been of the view, and are still of the view that gold is first and foremost a hard currency more so than it is a commodity. So the building blocks are there for gold to continue to go higher, not just against the dollar but against all of the other paper currencies as well.
Given the dynamics that we have in the background, the similarities that we to the 70s, we would argue the combination of the similarities, and the major difference which is the money printing being exercised by all of the developed world’s central banks, we can see gold continue to follow a trend equal in magnitude to what we saw in the 70s.
Ignoring the final move, which was caused by a Russian invasion of Afghanistan, we need to get to $3,400 just to replicate the core move seen in the 70s. We don’t see that, at the end of the day, as a particularly aggressive call.”
Demikian dengan Ben Davies, seorang CEO dari Hinde Capital, yang baru-baru ini berbicara kepada King World News dan mengatakan bahwa dirinya sangat yakin bahwa pergerakan emas saat ini akan mendorongnya menuju $2400-$2500. Berikut adalah keyakinannya yang mengatakan bahwa emas akan naik jauh lebih tinggi dari levelnya saat ini:
“Our trend intensity signal suggested the median was 10% (for this move). But in reality, when we have such readiness in the market, we really are looking for at least (a) 20% to 25% (move).
In light of the policy decisions that have been made, and the fact that the market has been surreptitiously held back, and that’s without a doubt, I think we really are pulling out the cork here. So I feel that by the end of the year gold will be over $2,000. I really feel that by May of next year, we’ll be $2,400 to $2,500. We’re starting a primary trend here.
So here’s the problem. I’ve just given you some target levels. The market has run up quite a lot. The market feels structurally short. The market participants are not there yet. So the next pullback in the market, and potentially there will be one from these levels, but not that deep, you have to buy it.
I would even go so far as to say that the market is not going to pull back much more than $1,735 to $1,740. Now it’s very to underestimate, when a market has run up, how far it can pull back, but it just doesn’t feel like market participants are in there yet, and I think even a shallow dip like that is going to bring strong buying in.”
Sebelum mengakhiri laporan ini, ada sejumlah kata-kata bijak di bawah ini dari Solomon Ibn Gabirol serta kutipan lelucon yang cerdas dari Woody Allen:
“There are four kinds of men in this world:
1. The man who knows, and knows that he knows; he is wise, so consult him.
2. The man who knows, but does not know that he knows: help him to not forget what he knows.
3. The man who knows not, and knows that he knows not; teach him.
4. Finally there is the man who knows not, but pretends that he knows; he is a fool, therefore avoid him.”
-Solomon Ibn Gabirol
“In my next life, I want to live my life backwards. You start out dead and get that out of the way. Then you wake up in an old people’s home feeling better every day. You get kicked out for being too healthy, go collect your pension, and then when you start work, you get a gold watch and a party on your first day. You work for 40 years until you’re young enough to enjoy your retirement. You party, drink alcohol, and are generally promiscuous, then you are ready for high school. You then go to primary school, you become a kid, you play. You have no responsibilities, you become a baby until you are born. And then you spend your last 9 months floating in luxurious spa-like conditions with central heating and room service on tap, larger quarters every day and then Voila! you finish off as an orgasm!”
-Woody Allen
Sumber : Nico Omer Jonckheere
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